Dowladda Ruushka ayaa ku tala jirta in ay soo bandhigto canshuuraha dhoofinta ee bacriminta markii ugu horeysay oo ay kordhiso qoondada sahaydooda dibadda. Sidee ayay tani u saamayn doontaa dhoofinta bacriminta, taas oo mar hore hoos u dhacday cunaqabataynta reer galbeedka awgeed, waxaa baadhay Forbes
Sida laga soo xigtay Ururka Cuntada iyo Beeraha ee Qaramada Midoobay (FAO), Russia sannadkii hore kaalinta koowaad ee dunida ee dhoofinta Bacriminta nitrogen, ahaa dhoofinta labaad ee ugu weyn ee Bacriminta potash iyo saddexaad - fosfooraska. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, cunaqabataynta reer galbeedka awgeed, sahayda bacriminta ee Russia laga bilaabo Janaayo ilaa Agoosto ee sanadkan, marka loo eego xogta ugu dambeysay ee la heli karo, guud ahaan hoos ayey u dhacday marka la barbardhigo isla muddadaas sannadkii hore, falanqeeyayaasha Machadka Cilmi-baarista Caalamiga ah ee Siyaasadda Cuntada (IFPRI) Joseph Glauber iyo David Laborde note.
Moscow waxay xirtay xogta dhoofinta tan iyo bishii Maarso, laakiin sida laga soo xigtay falanqeeyayaasha IFPRI, oo ku saleysan xogta furan ee laga soo dhoofiyo wadamada bacriminta Ruushka, sahayda potassium chloride ee siddeedii bilood ee ugu horeysay sanadkan ayaa hoos u dhacay 16.5%, urea (urea, bacriminta ka kooban 46 % nitrogen) - 22.8%. Soo dejinta ammonia ee Ruushka ayaa si gaar ah hoos ugu dhacday - 63%, sababtuna waa xidhitaanka dhuumaha Togliatti - Odessa ammonia. Isla mar ahaantaana, sahayda diammonium phosphate waxay ka badan tahay mugga siddeedda bilood ee ugu horreeya 2021 in ka badan 8%.
Inkasta oo hoos u dhaca dhoofinta, dawladdu waxay qorsheyneysaa in ay soo bandhigto canshuuraha dhoofinta ee bacriminta laga bilaabo Janaayo 1. Waxay u badan tahay, waxaa lagu soo bandhigi doonaa Ruushka hal dhinac iyo lix bilood, maadaama muddo dheer ay lagama maarmaan tahay in la isku duwo xubnaha kale ee Eurasian. Ururka Dhaqaalaha (EAEU).
Bishii Oktoobar, Wasiirka Maaliyadda Anton Siluanov ayaa ku dhawaaqay in canshuuraha dhoofinta la adeegsan doono haddii qiimaha adduunka ee bacriminta fosfooraska iyo nitrogen uu dhaafo $ 500 halkii ton, iyo bacriminta potash - $ 400 halkii ton. Bishii Nofeembar, Wasiirka Warshadaha iyo Ganacsiga Denis Manturov ayaa sheegay in canshuurta dhoofinta ee dhammaan noocyada bacriminta ay noqon doonto 23.5% haddii qiimaha adduunku uu ka sarreeyo $ 450 halkii ton, iyo xallinta qabyada ah ayaa horay loo diyaariyey.
Waajibaadka waxaa bixinaya dhammaan soo saarayaasha
Sida laga soo xigtay Phosagro, heerka celceliska qiimaha bacriminta macdanta ee rubuci saddexaad ee 2022 ayaa weli ka sarreeya qiimaha isla muddadaas 2021. Celceliska qiimaha HOL ee dekedaha Badda Baltic wuxuu ahaa $ 538 halkii ton marka loo eego $ 442 sannadkii hore. loogu talagalay ammophos (ammonium phosphate, bacriminta nitrogen-fosfooraska, ka kooban 10-12% nitrogen iyo 44-52% fosfooraska) - $ 777 halkii ton oo la mid ah $ 695, loogu talagalay chloride potassium (bacriminta potassium oo ka kooban 58-60% potassium oxide) - $694 ka dhanka ah $277.
"Qiimaha fosfooraska-ka kooban iyo bacriminta potash ayaa si tartiib tartiib ah hoos ugu dhacay sababtoo ah aad bay u sarreeyaan marka loo eego qiimaha wax soo saarka beeraha," ayaa lagu yiri warbixinta shirkadu. "Qiimaha bacriminta nitrogen-ka, oo ay ku jirto HOL, ayaa raacay isbeddel inta badan kor u kacaya, oo ay ku jirto heerka sare ee qiimaha tamarta ee sii socda, iyo natiijada hoos u dhaca muuqda ee wax soo saarka noocyadan bacriminta, gaar ahaan Yurub."
Qiimaha hadda jira, waxay u badan tahay in cashuurta laga qaadi doono dhammaan noocyada bacriminta, ayuu yidhi Dmitry Puchkarev, khabiir ku takhasusay suuqa saamiyada ee BCS World of Investments.
"Hadda qiimaha tafaariiqda chloride potassium ee Yurub iyo USA waxay ku dhow yihiin $850-855 halkii ton, urea - $ 820-825, diammonium phosphate (bacriminta nitrogen-fosfooraska leh 18% nitrogen iyo 46% fosfooraska) - $ 820-830 halkii ton. Marka la barbar dhigo qiimayaasha gu'ga-xagaaga 2022, markii ay gaadheen sannado badan oo sarreeya, qiimuhu wuu sii yaraanayaa," ayuu yidhi khabiir madaxbannaan oo Leonid Khazanov. "Si kastaba ha ahaatee, qiimayaashu wali ma gaarin heerka Noofambar 2021, in kasta oo qiimaha HOL uu ku soo wajahan yahay tilmaamayaasha muddadaas." Qiimaha dhoofinta ee dekedaha Ruushka ayaa si cad uga hooseeya qiimaha tafaariiqda ee Galbeedka, maadaama aysan ku jirin qiimaha kharashka gaadiidka iyo xadka ganacsatada u dhexeeya wax soo saarka iyo macaamiisha.
"Qiimaha dhimista ee $450 halkii ton laguma magacaabi karo mid aad u sarreeya," ayuu yiri Alexey Kalachev, oo ah falanqeeye ka tirsan Finam. "Waxay u badan tahay, inay ahayd natiijada heshiisyada iyo tanaasul." Sida laga soo xigtay Kalachev, inkasta oo qiimaha bacriminta uu hoos u dhacay 20-30% laga soo bilaabo qiimaha ugu sarreeya ee guga, haddana weli way sarreeyaan - waxay ahaayeen kuwo sarreeya oo keliya dayrta 2021, ka horna inta badan qiimaha ayaa si muuqata hoos ugu dhacay.
Tobannaankii sano ee la soo dhaafay, qiimaha bacriminta ayaa kor u kacay $450 halkii ton oo keliya 2007-2008 iyo 2010-2012, ayuu yiri Kalachev. Sidaas awgeed, ayuu yidhi, waajibaadka ka sarreeya qiimaha la gooyey, sida uu dhigayo qorshaha dawladda, waxay la noqon doontaa miisaaniyadda "dabaysha" soo saarayaasha bacriminta ee isku dhafka guusha leh. Sicirka goynta ayaa ka ilaalin doona soosaarayaasha culayska maaliyadeed ee xad-dhaafka ah haddii xaaladaha suuqa ay isbeddelaan oo qiimuhu hoos u dhaco celceliska heerarka sannadihii hore.
Khasaaraha soo-saareyaasha ka dib marka la soo bandhigo canshuuraha dhoofinta waxay ku xirnaan doontaa oo keliya qiimaha, laakiin sidoo kale waxay ku xiran tahay saamiga dhoofinta ee dakhligooda, ayuu yidhi Kalachev. Hadda shirkaduhu ma sheegaan juqraafiga iibka. Sanadihii hore, Dhoofinta Fosagro waxay keentey ilaa 70% dakhliga. Haddii canshuurta 23.5% lagu soo rogo qiimo ka sarreeya $ 450 halkii ton, ka dibna iyadoo la ilaalinayo qiimaha hadda, canshuurtu waxay ku kici doontaa shirkadda 6% dakhliga, khabiirku wuxuu qiyaasay.
Wasaaradda warshadaha iyo ganacsigu ma qorto qiimayaasha saldhiga loo qaadan doono, sababtoo ah qiimaha saldhigyada kala duwan aad ayay u kala duwan yihiin, ayay tidhi Oksana Lukicheva, oo ah falanqeeye ku saabsan suuqyada badeecadaha ee Otkritie Investments. Dhammaan wax-soo-saarayaashu waa inay bixiyaan canshuuraha, laakiin marka hore dhammaan kuwa dhoofintoodu ay sare u kacday - Phosago, Akron, Eurochem. Uralchem, oo ah soo saaraha ugu weyn ee bacriminta potash, ayaa bixin doona wax ka yar sababtoo ah dhoofinteeda ayaa hoos u dhacday.
Waajibaadka, sida uu qabo Lukicheva, waxay yarayn kartaa dakhliga dhoofiyeyaasha, laakiin ma saameyn doonto dhoofinta. "Heerka cashuurta ee 23.5% waa mid la aqbali karo marka la eego qiimaha sare ee bacriminta" ayuu yidhi falanqeeyaha. "Dhoofinta waxa laga yaabaa inay ku sii jirto heerkii sannadkii hore ama xitaa way koraan haddii cunaqabataynta la fududeeyo."
Soo bandhigida waajibaadku waxay horseedi kartaa hoos u dhac ku yimaada dhoofinta Ruushka haddii qiimaha bacriminta macdanta ee suuqa caalamiga ah uu sii socdo hoos u dhaca, Khazanov ayaa aaminsan. Horumarka noocan oo kale ah ee dhacdooyinka, falanqeeyuhu wuxuu ku doodayaa, faa'iidada wax-soo-saarayaasha ayaa hoos u dhici doona, taas oo lagu qasbi doono in la yareeyo sahayda iyo dib u eegista barnaamijyada maalgashiga. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, in muddo ah ka dib, tani waxay horseedi doontaa kor u kaca qiimaha bacriminta macdanta ee dibadda, sababtoo ah yaraantooda suuqyada adduunka, maadaama ay ahayd gu'ga-xagaaga 2022, iyo shirkado kiimiko ah oo gudaha ah, oo ku khasaaray tan, in ay awoodaan in ay lacag helaan," Khazanov ayaa aaminsan.
Kootada ma xaddidi doonto dhoofinta
Waajibaadku maaha habka kaliya ee lagu maamulo sahayda bacriminta Ruushka ee dibadda. Dawladdu waxay go'aansatay inay kordhiso kootada dhoofinta bacriminta laga bilaabo Janaayo 1 ilaa Maajo 31, 2023. Qaraarka qabyada ah ee u dhigma ayaa lagu daabacay marinka qabyo-qoraalka falalka sharci ee caadiga ah. Gudaha, mugga kootada dhoofinta ee ka baxsan EAEU ayaa lagu dejiyay 7,013 milyan tan oo bacriminta nitrogen ah iyo 4,907 milyan oo tan oo bacrimiyeyaasha adag.
Tani way ka yar tahay sidii ay ahayd. Laga bilaabo Luulyo 1 ilaa Diseembar 31, 2022, kootada loogu talagalay Bacriminta nitrogen ayaa saameyn ku leh - 8.3 milyan oo tan, kuwa adag oo ka kooban laba ama saddex nafaqo (nitrogen, fosfooraska iyo potassium) - 5.9 milyan oo tan. Wasaaradda Warshadaha iyo Ganacsiga ayaa ku dhawaaqday 21-kii Noofambar in ay hore u go'aansatay in la kordhiyo kootada cusub ee dhoofinta noocyada kala duwan ee Bacriminta nitrogen: kootada qiimaha dhoofinta HOL waxaa lagu kordhin doonaa 400,000 oo tan, amooniyam - 200,000 tan. Isku darka urea-ammonia 150,000 oo tan. Hab-maamuuska u dhigma waxaa saxiixay Ra'iisul Wasaare ku xigeenka koowaad Andrei Belousov. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, xitaa ka dib markii la kordhiyo kootada 0.75 milyan oo ton ilaa 7.763 milyan oo tan, waxay soo baxday inay ka yar tahay kootada hadda jirta ee dhoofinta bacriminta nitrogen ee 8.3 milyan oo tan.
Cabbirka kootada waxaa lagu xisaabiyaa iyadoo lagu saleynayo mugga wax soo saarka, sahayda beeralayda Ruushka iyo shirkadaha warshadaha, sida ku cad sharraxaad ay Forbes ka heshay Wasaaradda Warshadaha iyo Ganacsiga. Sida ku xusan warqadda, nuqulka la cusboonaysiiyay ee dukumeentiga ay ansixisay Wasaaradda Beeraha ee Ruushka oo ay ku heshiiyeen Wasaaradda Warshadaha iyo Ganacsiga Ruushka waxay siinaysaa gaarsiinta beeralayda Ruushka Janaayo-May 2023 10% ka sarreeya heerka isku midka ah. muddada sannadkii hore, taas oo saameyn ku yeelatay dhimista tirada guud ee dhoofinta kootada.
Mugga yar ee kootada, marka la barbardhigo xilliyadii hore ee kootada, ayaa ugu horrayn sabab u ah waqtiga, sharraxaadda ayaa leh. Markii hore, kootada waxaa la soo bandhigay lix bilood - laga bilaabo Diisambar 1, 2021 ilaa May 31, 2022 iyo laga bilaabo Luulyo 1, 2022 ilaa Diseembar 31, 2022. Muddada la soo jeediyay xallinta mashruucu waxay daboolaysaa shan bilood oo keliya - laga bilaabo Janaayo 1, 31 ilaa Maajo 2023. XNUMX. "Tirada kama dambaysta ah ee kootada waxaa lagu go'aamin doonaa inta lagu guda jiro isuduwidda xallinta qabyada ah ee mas'uuliyiinta fulinta federaalka ee daneynaya waxaana lagu ansixiyay shirka guddi-hoosaadka canshuuraha kastamka iyo sharci-dejinta, tallaabooyinka ilaalinta ee ganacsiga dibadda ee Guddiga Dowladda Horumarinta Dhaqaalaha iyo Is-dhexgalka,” ayay qortay Wasaaradda Warshadaha iyo Ganacsiga.
"Guud ahaan, kootada dhoofinta waxaa lagu soo bandhigay qadar wax yar ka yar celceliska mugga dhoofinta ee xilliyadii hore," ayuu yiri Alexey Kalachev, oo ah falanqeeye ka tirsan Finam. "Waxay ka ilaaliyaan suuqa gudaha kobaca tirada dhoofinta, laakiin waxay ku dhow yihiin ma yareeyaan dhoofinta dhabta ah ee shirkadaha."
Samaynta kootada waxay hagaajin doontaa saamiga u dhexeeya iibinta bacriminta macdanta ee suuqa gudaha ee Ruushka iyo dibadda, haddii loo baahdo, waa la kordhin karaa, sida ay horayba u ahayd sanadkan, ayuu yidhi Khazanov. "Si kastaba ha ahaatee, suuqa Ruushku wuxuu ahaan doonaa furaha soo saarayaashayada, taas oo 2023 laga yaabo inay kordhiso awooddeeda sababtoo ah taageerada gobolka ee sii socota ee beeraha," ayuu khabiirku xusay.
Sida laga soo xigtay Ururka Ruushka ee Soosaarayaasha Bacriminta, laga bilaabo Noofambar 16, 2022, soosaarayaasha Ruushka ee bacriminta macdanta ayaa bixiyay 108% baahida qorshaysan ee soosaarayaasha beeraha Ruushka, taas oo sanadkan lagu qiyaasay 4.85 milyan oo tan.
Xigasho: https://www.forbes.ru